Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.270658 1.445617 1.632886 1.847897 2.087578 2.346181 2.645944
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.013119 1.244324 1.508408 1.831094 2.213390 2.650442 3.186422
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.852868 1.125303 1.455797 1.883257 2.418182 3.061886 3.891136
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.706736 1.001302 1.380476 1.898726 2.582131 3.445265 4.609419
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.619663 0.940135 1.376634 2.004987 2.874787 4.023041 5.637415
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.504863 0.822913 1.282283 1.979618 2.993419 4.392209 6.441138
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.422185 0.738429 1.222041 1.994595 3.171200 4.863208 7.437698
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.349030 0.655626 1.152108 1.986252 3.315649 5.305287 8.444715
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.305010 0.612694 1.138216 2.063060 3.599052 5.981919 9.865556
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.264216 0.567697 1.114240 2.120881 3.860987 6.655279 11.352212
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.225359 0.518460 1.075198 2.148075 4.077073 7.280494 12.828021
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.192855 0.474854 1.039331 2.176033 4.298568 7.937999 14.420713
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.153980 0.410306 0.955308 2.109064 4.357005 8.351251 15.690913
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.122065 0.352804 0.874445 2.035550 4.395172 8.737011 16.960810
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.102403 0.319274 0.838075 2.046769 4.597971 9.440825 18.862622
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.084045 0.283626 0.789764 2.025126 4.734237 10.039515 20.639167
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.074181 0.268472 0.786964 2.104344 5.089257 11.090964 23.353600
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.059659 0.234651 0.730501 2.050572 5.156176 11.591547 25.078519
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.049632 0.211293 0.695902 2.043173 5.324109 12.311924 27.297198
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.040696 0.188077 0.656122 2.015686 5.443153 12.945010 29.402366
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.035829 0.177709 0.650922 2.077139 5.777810 14.062547 32.580230
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.031174 0.166269 0.639887 2.121305 6.077450 15.134624 35.755679
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.026567 0.152972 0.619737 2.136662 6.308564 16.079292 38.743404